Are residential solar photovoltaic systems a good investment in China?

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have boomed in China over recent years. However, knowledge about the economic performance of residential PV investments is still limited. Therefore, this study attempts to make a complete economic assessment of residential PV systems at the county-level.

Why are residential PV systems increasing in China?

As the initial cost of PV investments keeps declining rapidly, however, residential PV installations began to speed up gradually. The newly installed capacity of residential PV systems in China in 2019 is 4.2 GW p, which is just following the annual addition to solar PV capacity of the U.S., India, Japan, Vietnam, or Spain ( REN21, 2020 ).

How do we estimate learning rates for solar PV modules?

Using nation-specific, component-level price data and global PV installation and silicon price data, we estimate learning rates for solar PV modules in the three largest solar-deploying countries (China, Germany and the United States) between 2006 and 2020 using a two-factor learning model.

How much will solar PV modules cost in 2021?

For comparison, the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021 Annual Technology Baseline report predicts that solar PV modules will reach US$170 per kW, US$190 per kW and US$320 per kW by 2030 in advanced, moderate and conservative improvement scenarios, respectively 19.

Are solar PV prices going down?

Nonetheless, rapid price declines in solar PV have not been without controversy. China, for example, has played an outsized role in scaling up the mass production of solar PV cells and modules, comprising 78% of global production in 2021 9, 10 (Fig. 1).

How many solar panels will China install in 2023?

According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the country is set to install up to 120 GW of solar power in 2023. But manufacturers should have big module inventories accumulating, noted another source, which if unleashed on the market may suggest more downslides on the horizon.